Pakistan: the next Afghanistan?

Some pundits claim Pakistan is no more stable than Afghanistan. Recent events offer support to that argument.

Two weeks ago, Pakistani helicopter gunships attacked an Islamic school in the frontier region killing over 80 people. The army claimed they were militants. Security officials claimed, furthermore, that the school was run by a local Taliban commander who had been sheltering insurgents and who was among the dead. However, local leaders said many victims were civilians, including children.

The attack has powerful political implications. The deputy chief minister of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province threatened to resign. The attack was also condemned by the provincial assembly. Tens of thousands of armed tribesmen crowded into Khar, six miles from the school, to angrily protest.

Meanwhile, militants promised revenge. Last Wednesday they got it. A suicide bomber gained entry to a military camp northwest of Islamabad and killed 42 soldiers, wounding dozens. Talat Masood, a retired army general and media commentator, called the bombing "the beginning of an insurgency in Pakistan." He went on to say, "We should not be fighting America's war. We have to solve our own problems. If we are dictated to by outsiders it will end up like Iraq or Afghanistan."

If we didn't understand Pakistani President Musharraf's balancing act before, it should be coming increasingly clear. As he said on the Jon Stewart show, he has to be careful a Taliban movement doesn't become a Pashtun movement. We in the West should be careful, too. Very careful.